IV.

The Great Powers Since World War II

The United States and the Soviet Union, World War II allies against Germany, became opposing “superpowers” after 1945. These two nations dominated great-power relations for 40 years during the Cold War. During this period, Europe split into rival power blocs, composed of nations with membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and those affiliated through the Warsaw Pact. Regional tensions in Europe mirrored the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union. The superpowers also sought to acquire influence throughout the rest of the world, often by supporting local factions and armies in regional or civil wars. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 upset the balance among great powers by leaving the United States as the lone superpower, significantly stronger than the world’s remaining great powers.

Today’s great powers—the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China—all have large military forces and substantial nuclear weapons capabilities. Japan and Germany—with huge economies and relatively large military forces but no nuclear weapons—also qualify as great powers. These seven states control over half of the world’s economy, 68 percent of world military spending, 27 percent of its soldiers, 95 percent of arms exports, and 99 percent of nuclear weapons. The only other states of comparable economic size are Italy and perhaps India, neither of which has the global outlook or military strength to qualify as a great power. India, which now has nuclear weapons capability, and Brazil are regional giants that have the potential to become great powers in the 21st century.

The United States dominates great-power relations as the world’s only superpower. Its economy equals that of the next three largest states combined—Japan, China, and Germany. Its military spending exceeds that of the other six great powers combined by more than $100 billion. The influence of the United States in the international political system is commensurate with its dominant status in the world. For example, international involvement in post-Cold War conflicts—such as the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the civil war in Bosnia that began in 1992—largely depended on U.S. leadership and demonstrated the profound gap in military capabilities between the United States and other great powers.

Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States became more assertive of its superpower status. As part of the government’s “war on terror,” President George W. Bush committed the United States to a policy of preemptive war—the use of force to attack potential threats before they are able to fully threaten the United States. This policy became known as the Bush Doctrine. Thus, the United States launched an invasion of Iraq in 2003 despite the opposition of great powers such as France, Russia, China, and Germany. See U.S.-Iraq War.

As U.S. power has grown, however, smaller states have gained the ability to challenge great powers in international affairs. The growth of nuclear proliferation and the potential spread of nuclear weapons to new states has provided the opportunity for a second-tier power, India, to claim great power status, and has allowed a small state, North Korea, to resist the will of the great powers. Globalization has provided opportunities for lesser powers and even for nonstate organizations, such as terrorist groups, to challenge great powers. Nevertheless, the size and significance of the great powers assures that they will remain the central actors in international relations.