Inflation and Deflation

V

Effects

The specific effects of inflation and deflation are mixed and fluctuate over time. Deflation is typically caused by depressed economic output and unemployment. Lower prices may eventually encourage improvements in consumption, investment, and foreign trade, but only if the fundamental causes of the original deterioration are corrected.

Inflation initially increases business profits, as wages and other costs lag behind price increases, leading to more capital investment and payments of dividends and interest. Personal spending may increase because of “buy now, it will cost more later” attitudes; potential real estate price appreciation may attract buyers. Domestic inflation may temporarily improve the balance of trade if the same volume of exports can be sold at higher prices. Government spending rises because many programs are explicitly, or informally, indexed to inflation rates to preserve the real value of government services and transfers of income. Officials may also anticipate paying larger budgets with tax revenues from inflated incomes.

Despite these temporary gains, however, inflation eventually disrupts normal economic activities, particularly if the pace fluctuates. Interest rates typically include the anticipated pace of inflation that increases business costs, discourages consumer spending, and depresses the value of stocks and bonds. Higher mortgage interest rates and rapidly escalating prices for homes discourage housing construction. Inflation erodes the real purchasing power of current incomes and accumulated financial assets, resulting in reduced consumption, particularly if consumers are unable, or unwilling, to draw on their savings and increase personal debts. Business investment suffers as overall economic activity declines, and profits are restricted as employees demand immediate relief from chronic inflation through automatic cost-of-living escalator clauses. Most raw materials and operating costs respond quickly to inflationary signals. Higher export prices eventually restrict foreign sales, creating deficits in trade and services and international currency-exchange problems. Inflation is a major element in the prevailing pattern of booms and recessions that cause unwanted price and employment distortions and widespread economic uncertainty.

The impact of inflation on individuals depends on many variables. People with relatively fixed incomes, particularly those in low-income groups, suffer during accelerating inflation, while those with flexible bargaining power may keep pace with or even benefit from inflation. Those dependent on assets with fixed nominal values, such as savings accounts, pensions, insurance policies, and long-term debt instruments, suffer erosion of real wealth; other assets with flexible values, such as real estate, art, raw materials, and durable goods, may keep pace with or exceed the average inflation rate. Workers in the private sector strive for cost-of-living adjustments in wage contracts. Borrowers usually benefit while lenders suffer, because mortgage, personal, business, and government loans are paid with money that loses purchasing power over time and interest rates tend to lag behind the average rate of price increases. A pervasive “inflationary psychology” eventually dominates private and public economic decisions.

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VI

Stabilization Measures

Any serious antiinflation effort will be difficult, risky, and prolonged because restraint tends to reduce real output and employment before benefits become apparent, whereas fiscal and monetary stimulus typically increases economic activity before prices accelerate. This pattern of economic and political risks and incentives explains the dominance of expansion policies.

Stabilization efforts try to offset the distorting effects of inflation and deflation by restoring normal economic activity. To be effective, such initiatives must be sustained rather than merely occasional fine-tuning actions that often exaggerate existing cyclical changes. The fundamental requirement is stable expansion of money and credit commensurate with real growth and financial market needs. Over extended periods the United States Federal Reserve System can influence the availability and cost of money and credit by controlling the financial reserves that are required and by other regulatory procedures. Monetary restraint during cyclical expansions reduces inflation pressures; an accommodative policy during cyclical recessions helps finance recovery. Monetary officials, however, cannot unilaterally create economic stability if private consumption and investment cause inflation or deflation pressures or if other public policies are contradictory. Government spending and tax policies must be consistent with monetary actions so as to achieve stability and prevent exaggerated swings in economic policies.

Since the mid-1960s the rapid growth of federal budget spending in the United States combined with even greater percentage increases in off-budget outlays and a multitude of federal lending programs have exceeded the tax revenues almost every year, creating large government deficit borrowing requirements. Pressures to provide money and credit required for private consumption and investment and for financing the chronic budget deficits and government loan programs have led to a rapid expansion of the money supply with resulting inflation problems. Effective stabilization efforts will require a better balance and a more sustained application of both monetary and fiscal policies.

Important supply-side actions are also required to fight inflation and avoid the economic stagnation effects of deflation. Among the initiatives that have been recommended are the reversal of the serious deterioration of national productivity by increasing incentives for savings and investment; enlarged spending for the development and application of technology; improvement of management techniques and labor efficiency through education and training; expanded efforts to conserve valuable raw materials and develop new sources; and reduction of unnecessary government regulation.

Some analysts have recommended the use of various income policies to fight inflation. Such policies range from mandatory government guidelines for wages, prices, rents, and interest rates, through tax incentives and disincentives, to simple voluntary standards suggested by the government. Advocates claim that government intervention would supplement basic monetary and fiscal actions, but critics point to the ineffectiveness of past control programs in the United States and other industrial nations and also question the desirability of increasing government control over private economic decisions. Future stabilization policy initiatives will likely concentrate on coordinating monetary and fiscal policies and increasing supply-side efforts to restore productivity and develop new technology. See also Business Cycle; Finance; Money.